Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

: The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990)

Recalibrating survival prediction among patients receiving trans\u2010arterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background & Aims The Pre-TACE-Predict model was devised to assess prognosis of patients treated with trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, before entering clinical practice, a model should demonstrate that it performs a useful role. Methods We performed an independent external validation of the Pre-TACE model in a cohort that differs in setting and time period from the one that generated the original model. Data from 826 patients treated with TACE for naïve HCC (2008-2018) were used to assess calibration and discrimination of the Pre-TACE-Predict model. Results The four risk-categories identified by the Pre-TACE-Predict model had gradient monotonicity, with median survivals of 52.0, 36.2, 29.9, and 14.1 months respectively. However, predicted survivals systematically underestimated observed survivals (R2: 0.667). A recalibration was adopted maintaining fixed the prognostic index and modifying the baseline survival function. This resulted in an almost perfect calibration (R2: 0.995) in all the four risk categories. Cox regressions showed that aetiology and macrovascular invasion, included in the Pre-TACE-Predict model, had no prognostic impact in the present study population, and that coefficients for tumour size and multiplicity were overestimated. The c-index was similar to that of the m-HAP-III, but higher than those of HAP, m-HAP-II and the six-and-twelve models. Conclusions The recalibration of Pre-TACE-Predict model improved the estimation of survival probabilities of HCC patients treated with TACE. The highest discriminatory ability of the Pre-TACE-model in comparison to other available models, together with risk stratification and recalibration, makes it the best prognostic tool currently available for these patients

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma with a 3-months interval in “extremely high-risk” patients does not further improve survival

Background An enhanced surveillance schedule has been proposed for cirrhotics with viral etiology, who are considered at extremely high-risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Aims We compared the 3- and 6-months surveillance interval, evaluating cancer stage at diagnosis and patient survival. Methods Data of 777 HBV and HCV cirrhotic patients with HCC diagnosed under a 3-months (n = 109, 3MS group) or a 6-months (n = 668, 6MS group) surveillance were retrieved from the Italian Liver Cancer database. Survival in the 3MS group was considered as observed and adjusted for lead-time bias, and survival analysis was repeated after a propensity score matching. Results The 3-months surveillance interval neither reduced the share of patients diagnosed outside the Milano criteria, nor increased their probability to receive curative treatments. The median survival of 6MS patients (55.0 months [45.9–64.0]) was not significantly different from the observed (47.0 months [35.0–58.9]; p = 0.43) and adjusted (44.9 months [33.4–56.4]; p = 0.30) survival of 3MS patients. A propensity score analysis confirmed the absence of a survival advantage for 3MS patients. Conclusions A tightening of surveillance schedule does not increase the diagnosis of early-stage tumors, the feasibility of curative treatments and the survival. Therefore, we should maintain the 6-months interval in the surveillance of viral cirrhotics

Monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma: how much does size matter?

none88mixedPelizzaro, Filippo; Penzo, Barbara; Peserico, Giulia; Imondi, Angela; Sartori, Anna; Vitale, Alessandro; Cillo, Umberto; Giannini, Edoardo G.; Forgione, Antonella; Rapaccini, Gian Ludovico; Di Marco, Maria; Caturelli, Eugenio; Zoli, Marco; Sacco, Rodolfo; Cabibbo, Giuseppe; Marra, Fabio; Mega, Andrea; Morisco, Filomena; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Svegliati‐Baroni, Gianluca; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Olivani, Andrea; Masotto, Alberto; Nardone, Gerardo; Raimondo, Giovanni; Azzaroli, Francesco; Vidili, Gianpaolo; Oliveri, Filippo; Trevisani, Franco; Farinati, Fabio; Biselli, Maurizio; Caraceni, Paolo; Garuti, Francesca; Gramenzi, Annagiulia; Neri, Andrea; Santi, Valentina; Granito, Alessandro; Muratori, Luca; Piscaglia, Fabio; Sansone, Vito; Tovoli, Francesco; Dajti, Elton; Marasco, Giovanni; Ravaioli, Federico; Cappelli, Alberta; Golfieri, Rita; Mosconi, Cristina; Renzulli, Matteo; Marina Cela, Ester; Facciorusso, Antonio; Cacciato, Valentina; Casagrande, Edoardo; Moscatelli, Alessandro; Pellegatta, Gaia; de Matthaeis, Nicoletta; Allegrini, Gloria; Lauria, Valentina; Ghittoni, Giorgia; Pelecca, Giorgio; Chegai, Fabrizio; Coratella, Fabio; Ortenzi, Mariano; Missale, Gabriele; Inno, Alessandro; Marchetti, Fabiana; Busacca, Anita; Cabibbo, Giuseppe; Cammà, Calogero; Di Martino, Vincenzo; Emanuele Maria Rizzo, Giacomo; Stella Franzè, Maria; Saitta, Carlo; Sauchella, Assunta; Bevilacqua, Vittoria; Borghi, Alberto; Casadei Gardini, Andrea; Conti, Fabio; Chiara Dall’Aglio, Anna; Ercolani, Giorgio; Mirici, Federica; Campani, Claudia; Di Bonaventura, Chiara; Gitto, Stefano; Coccoli, Pietro; Malerba, Antonio; Guarino, Maria; Brunetto, Maurizia; Romagnoli, VeronicaPelizzaro, Filippo; Penzo, Barbara; Peserico, Giulia; Imondi, Angela; Sartori, Anna; Vitale, Alessandro; Cillo, Umberto; Giannini, Edoardo G.; Forgione, Antonella; Rapaccini, Gian Ludovico; Di Marco, Maria; Caturelli, Eugenio; Zoli, Marco; Sacco, Rodolfo; Cabibbo, Giuseppe; Marra, Fabio; Mega, Andrea; Morisco, Filomena; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Svegliati‐baroni, Gianluca; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Olivani, Andrea; Masotto, Alberto; Nardone, Gerardo; Raimondo, Giovanni; Azzaroli, Francesco; Vidili, Gianpaolo; Oliveri, Filippo; Trevisani, Franco; Farinati, Fabio; Biselli, Maurizio; Caraceni, Paolo; Garuti, Francesca; Gramenzi, Annagiulia; Neri, Andrea; Santi, Valentina; Granito, Alessandro; Muratori, Luca; Piscaglia, Fabio; Sansone, Vito; Tovoli, Francesco; Dajti, Elton; Marasco, Giovanni; Ravaioli, Federico; Cappelli, Alberta; Golfieri, Rita; Mosconi, Cristina; Renzulli, Matteo; Marina Cela, Ester; Facciorusso, Antonio; Cacciato, Valentina; Casagrande, Edoardo; Moscatelli, Alessandro; Pellegatta, Gaia; de Matthaeis, Nicoletta; Allegrini, Gloria; Lauria, Valentina; Ghittoni, Giorgia; Pelecca, Giorgio; Chegai, Fabrizio; Coratella, Fabio; Ortenzi, Mariano; Missale, Gabriele; Inno, Alessandro; Marchetti, Fabiana; Busacca, Anita; Cabibbo, Giuseppe; Cammà, Calogero; Di Martino, Vincenzo; Emanuele Maria Rizzo, Giacomo; Stella Franzè, Maria; Saitta, Carlo; Sauchella, Assunta; Bevilacqua, Vittoria; Borghi, Alberto; Casadei Gardini, Andrea; Conti, Fabio; Chiara Dall’Aglio, Anna; Ercolani, Giorgio; Mirici, Federica; Campani, Claudia; Di Bonaventura, Chiara; Gitto, Stefano; Coccoli, Pietro; Malerba, Antonio; Guarino, Maria; Brunetto, Maurizia; Romagnoli, Veronic

Material deprivation affects the management and clinical outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma in a high-resource environment

Aim: This study investigated how material deprivation in Italy influences the stage of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at diagnosis and the chance of cure. Methods: 4114 patients from the Italian Liver Cancer database consecutively diagnosed with HCC between January 2008 and December 2018 were analysed about severe material depriva- tion (SMD) rate tertiles of the region of birth and region of managing hospitals, according to the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. The main outcomes were HCC diagnosis modalities (during or outside surveillance), treatment adoption and overall survival. Results: In more deprived regions, HCC was more frequently diagnosed during surveillance, while the incidental diagnosis was prevalent in the least deprived. Tumour characteristics did not differ among regions. The proportion of patients undergoing potentially curative treat- ments progressively decreased as the SMD worsened. Consequently, overall survival was bet- ter in less deprived regions. Patients who moved from most deprived to less deprived regions increased their probability of receiving potentially curative treatments by 1.11 times (95% CI 1.03 to 1.19), decreasing their mortality likelihood (hazard ratio 0.78 95% CI 0.67 to 0.90). Conclusions: Socioeconomic status measured through SMD does not seem to influence HCC features at diagnosis but brings a negative effect on the chance of receiving potentially curative treatments. Patient mobility from the most deprived to the less deprived regions increased the access to curative therapies, with the ultimate result of improving survival